Clearly, the worst-case scenario for progressives in New York's 9th congressional district is the currently most likely one: Republican Bob Turner wins the special election today for the seat previously held by Anthony Weiner.
But, unfortunately, even if Democrat David Weprin does manage to pull it off, it may be a sigh of relief for the party, but it won't be a victory for progressives.
If Weprin wins, the Dem-GOP ratio in the House will go unchanged, but the shift from Weiner to Weprin will be anything but negligible.
We will have gone from an outspoken (if somewhat unaccomplished) liberal in Weiner -- who not only vocally defended progressive positions but actually attacked the folly of conservative dogma -- to a moderate back-benching checklist Democrat who is a machine hack chosen not in a primary but by his county party organization, who told the right-wing NY Post that he wouldn't endorse Obama, and who will do little to move the ball forward in the progressive movement's crucial battle to win the national dialogue of this generation.
Replacing a strong, vocal, and proud liberal with an apologetic, defensive, and uninspiring moderate is the opposite of what we should be doing in the face of the Tea Party, which presents a huge threat to progressivism.
The Tea Party has many flaws, but tactically, its intransigence is not one of them. It has very smartly gone after safe GOP seats and taken out sleepy, ineffectual old-timer incumbents (or worse, in their view: moderates), replacing them with hard-line conservatives who will hold the line on conservative staples like taxes, spending, and so on.
The result is that the leader of the party, Speaker Boehner, has to reckon with this minority wing of the party because they simply will not budge, meaning they move policy more rightward. In addition, they are outspoken, and through their defense of conservative principles, move the public debate rightward as well.
We should be doing that on the left.
Anthony Weiner was not a perfect congressman. He did far more talking than doing, frankly. But he was forceful, smart, and when he took a position, he was willing to be combative if necessary. And he understood the earlier point about moving the public debate.
Too often, conservatives win the public debate simply because they defend their positions, and progressives either apologize for theirs or try to be like Republicans (think John Kerry trying to out-military Bush at the Democratic convention with his "I'm John Kerry, and I'm reporting for duty" claptrap). Actually explaining and defending our principles will go a long way. If we don't do that, of course voters will side with Republicans; after all, they're only hearing the GOP's version of things. (In an amazing demonstration of this point, one of the few arguments progressives have not shied away from making, has been hammering Republicans on the need to protect social security -- and lo and behold, Mitt Romney and MICHELE BACHMANN (!) today are blasting Rick Perry for trying to endanger the program!).
Now, some may argue that given the fact that Weprin is in danger of losing, maybe this district is a bad example for my approach, which is really based on ensuring that safe Democratic seats be held by strong progressives rather than checklist Democrats. There may be merit to that, but I'd argue that if we had a candidate who actually got on offense and blasted the GOP candidate Turner for opposing vital programs like Social Security and Medicare, pledging to push corporate welfare policies that wrecked the economy, and giving big sloppy kisses to polluters who poison our air and water, they'd do a lot better.
But either way, at the end of the day, the point remains: If Weprin wins, it's better than him losing, but the progressive movement will have taken a few steps back from when Weiner was in office -- at a time when we so need to be doing the exact reverse.
The remedy: we must pore through the more than 100 safe Democratic seats in the House, and strategically wage primaries against weak, moderate, or quiet incumbents, running rock-solid progressives who will not only vote down the line, but stick strong to principles (moving our policy leftward) and publicly hammer our values (moving the debate leftward), as well.
Because in the end, the David Weprins may not be as dangerous as the Joe Walshes and Alan Wests, but they set us back, in their own way.